Here is a look at three of his recent predictions: Disease: Kurzweil predicts that most if not all disease will be curable in the next decade. Supercomputers have been built that can operate at 20 petaflops (roughly the hardware-equivalent of the human brain according to Kurzweil). [31] The nano-bots will also allow people to "connect their neocortex to the cloud". Edit/proofread. (48:30), VR/AR glasses that project images onto wearers' retinas will be common in the early 2010s. [7] By 2008, a software version for the (pocket-sized) Nokia N82 smartphone was available for $1,595. Individual beings merge and separate constantly, making it impossible to determine how many “people” there are on Earth. Cell phones and PCs will be increasingly woven into a global grid of computers wirelessly connected to the Internet. The eyeglasses and headphones that used to deliver virtual reality are now obsolete thanks to computer implants that go into the eyes and ears. …by the inventor and visionary Ray Kurzweil emphasizes biology, cryonics, and medicine (including nanomedicine): in the future we will have the medical tools to banish disease and disease-related death. Which was an accurate prediction. Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.). Called "the restless genius" by The Wall Street Journal and "the ultimate thinking machine" by Forbes magazine, Ray was selected as one of the top entrepreneurs by Inc. magazine, which described … Militaries rely heavily on armed unmanned airborne devices. Learn how your comment data is processed. The concept of "life expectancy" has become irrelevant to humans and machines thanks to medical immortality and advanced computers. And most of his predictions come with so many loopholes that they border on the unfalsifiable. Let’s start in 1990 when Kurzweil predicted that that “personal computers are available in a wide range of sizes and shapes, and are commonly embedded in clothing and jewelry such as wristwatches, rings, earrings and other body ornaments.” (36:00), "We will get to full-scale molecular nanotechnology in about 20 years." The algorithms that allow the relatively small genetic code of the brain to construct a much more complex organ are being transferred into computer neural nets. An increasing share of the population is working from home and while traveling. (1:36:00), In 25 years, we will have advanced nanobots that can enter our bodies and fix our cells, keeping us healthy. Kurzweil has said that by 2014, humanity will reach a "tipping point" where the cost-per-watt from solar energy is cheaper than from coal and oil: By capturing only 0.03 percent of the sun's energy that falls on Earth, humanity could meet virtually all of its projected energy needs up to 2030[30] (thirty trillion watts); this will be capable through with extremely inexpensive, lightweight, and efficient nano-engineered solar panels together with nano-fuel cells to store and distribute the captured energy. ", Supercomputers will have the same raw computing power as human brains, though the software to emulate human thinking on those computers does not yet exist (. Nanobots capable of entering the bloodstream to "feed" cells and extract waste will exist (though not necessarily be in wide use) by the end of this decade. Reverse engineering of the human brain completed. That was tough enough, but his genes were stacked against him in other ways as well. Local roads still require full human interaction. Ray Kurzweil (born 1948) is a well-known futurist and advocate of the transhumanist belief cluster with a truly overwhelming fear of death.He makes predictions about what science and humanity will achieve in the next ten, … (2:40:00), In 15–20 years, humans will be able to use biotechnology to "reprogram" themselves so that cancer, heart disease and other serious diseases become manageable conditions and not fatal ones. Natural human thinking possesses no advantages over computer minds. Further progress has been made in understanding the secrets of the human brain. The aforementioned computer eyeglasses and contact lenses are also used for this same purpose, and all download the information wirelessly. Computers less than 100 nm in size will be possible. Of his 147 predictions since the 1990s, Kurzweil has kept an astonishing accuracy rate of 86 percent. In-text citations: These come from “2030–Ray Kurzweil’s Predictions or Bill Joy’s Fears.” Works Cited page: Only one entry on the Works Cited page, for “2030—Ray Kurzweil’s Predictions or Bill Joy’s Fears.” 6. Par exemple, sa prédiction de la WiFi vraiment omniprésente est en passe de devenir réalité, en particulier avec la mise en oeuvre actuelle par Elon Musk de la diffusion de l’internet à travers le monde depuis l’espace au moyen d’une chaine de satellites. "[37], In a January 2017 blog article on his website, software developer Paul Feakins found that Kurzweil's analysis of his own prediction accuracy was heavily biased in his favour. For every chapter, Kurzweil issues predictions about what life and technology will be like in that year. The basic needs of the underclass are met (not specified if this pertains only to the developed world or to all countries). [11], In an October 2002 article published on his website, Kurzweil stated that "Deep Fritz-like chess programs running on ordinary personal computers will routinely defeat all humans later in this decade. Retinal and neural implants also exist, but are in limited use because they are less useful. These are most commonly used by disabled people to regain normal physical faculties (e.g. Telemedicine is common. [5] At the time of the publication of The Age of Intelligent Machines, there were only 2.6 million Internet users in the world,[6] and the medium was often unreliable outside academic, military, corporate and other heavily invested settings, difficult for non-technical users to use, and mostly lacking a broad range of content. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. Cell phones display high-resolution images. While this book focuses on the future of technology and the human race as The Age of Intelligent Machines and The Age of Spiritual Machines did, Kurzweil makes very few concrete, short-term predictions in The Singularity Is Near, though longer-term visions abound. It ultimately consists of a nanotechnological system of nourishment and circulation, obsolescing many internal organs, brain-extension and an improved skeleton. The decade in which "Bridge Three", the revolution in Nanotechnology, is to begin: allowing humans to vastly overcome the inherent limitations of biology, as no matter how much humanity fine-tunes its biology, they will never be as capable otherwise. Exoskeletal, robotic leg prostheses allow the paraplegic to walk. These computer-based beings are capable of manifesting themselves at will in the physical world by creating or taking over robotic bodies, with individual AIs also being capable of controlling multiple bodies at once. At least 50% of all transactions are conducted over the internet. American author, inventor and futurist Raymond Kurzweil has become well known for his predictions about artificial intelligence and the human species, mainly concerning the technological singularity. Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing. The following predictions were made by Ray Kurzweil, now … "Bioengineered treatments for cancer and heart disease have greatly reduced the mortality from these diseases. [10] In 2020, DeepMind's AlphaFold AI was recognized "as a solution to this grand challenge" by the organizers of the biyearly protein structure prediction contest CASP. Space technology becomes advanced enough to provide the Earth permanent protection from the threat of asteroid impacts. This means that average and even low-end computers are vastly smarter than even highly intelligent, unenhanced humans. The typical home has over 100 computers in it, many of which are embedded in appliances. This is very similar to how the characters in. Humans and machines merge in the physical and mental realms. "Most routine business transactions (purchases, travel, reservations) take place between a human and a virtual personality. As Inverse puts it, … He thinks extremely small robots (nanobots) that enter our bloodstream will … His most recent book, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, was a New York Times bestseller. Computer viruses are a major threat since most intelligent beings are software-based. The physical bottom limit to how small computer transistors (or other equivalent, albeit more effective components, such as, Because of this, AI's convert more and more of the Earth's matter into engineered, computational substrate capable of supporting more A.I.s. Some humans at least as old as the Baby Boomers are still alive and well. AIs are capable of dividing their attention and energies in countless directions, allowing one being to manage a multitude of endeavors simultaneously. Kurzweil's first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, was published in 1990. By: Kurzweil, Ray, New Scientist, 02624079, September 24, 2005, Vol. until the whole Earth is one, gigantic computer, except for a few, At this point, the only possible way to increase the intelligence of the machines any farther is to begin converting all of the matter and energy in the universe into similar massive computers. Artificial Intelligences claim to be conscious and openly petition for recognition of the fact. A $1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain. Scary, fascinating, or some combination of the two? Or a shopper may receive recommendations from a software program that has learned his or her shopping habits. Kurzweil also states that 3–4 months of life expectancy were added in 2007 due to the development of new medicines and treatments. The extermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely (though not impossible) because sharp distinctions between man and machine will no longer exist thanks to the existence of cybernetically enhanced humans and uploaded humans. …that a computer would defeat a world chess champion by 1998. High-resolution audio-visual cybersex is common, aided by falling costs of high-speed internet and computer hardware. A fully matured cloud computing network: "[Computers] will tap into the worldwide mesh (what the World Wide Web will become once all of its linked devices become communicating Web servers, thereby forming vast supercomputers and memory banks) of high-speed communications and computational resources.". Non-biological intelligence combines the subtlety and pattern recognition strength of human intelligence, with the speed, memory, and knowledge-sharing of machine intelligence. Ray Kurzweil was 35 when he was diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. Just as visual and auditory virtual reality have come of age. Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. Co-Founder and Chancellor, Singularity University. Here's some fun news for your day: By 2045, human beings will become second-banana to machines that have surpassed the intelligence of mankind. … Users can engage in audio-video teleconferences. (2:25:00), Microsoft and Google will still be successful companies in 15 years. (1:40:00), In about a century, humans will saturate their part of the universe with intelligence. It will become "routine technology" by the end of that decade. Personal worn computers provide monitoring of body functions, automated identity and directions for navigation. (27:30), By the early 2030s, machines will persuasively display human emotions, human-level intelligence, and will claim to be conscious. Hundreds of distinct sub-regions with specialized functions have been identified. How my predictions are faring — an update by Ray Kurzweil. 187, Issue 2518, Learn how and when to remove these template messages, Learn how and when to remove this template message, demise of the already crumbling Soviet Union, "Kurzweil-National Federation of the Blind Reader" (K-NFB Reader), "Swift and Slashing, Computer Topples Kasparav", "Fleeing the dot.com era – decline in Internet usage", "The KNFB Reader becomes the Property of the Nation's Blind", "Award-Winning Text Recognition App that Gives the Blind Access to Print Now Available on Android", "Supercomputer sets protein-folding record", "AlphaFold: a solution to a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology". People use personal computers the size of rings, pins, credit cards and books. A.I.s radiate outward from Earth, first into the, Kurzweil predicts that machines might have the ability to make. [17], According to Ray Kurzweil, 90 out of 108 predictions he made were entirely correct by the end of 2009. The exponentially improving cost-performance of computation will thus have no interruption. Matjaz Slanic/Sean Mathis/WireImage/Getty. | TMZ TV, Retro Toys Transformers | GameStop Exclusive, First Ever Flying Electric Racing Car | Mashable, 2 Super Giant Surprise Eggs Spiderman Ironman Toys opening Disney Marvel Avengers CKN Toys. His first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, published in 1990, put forth his theories on the results of the increasing use of technology and predicted the explosive growth in the internet, among other predictions. Computer peripherals use wireless communication. These eyeglasses will become a new medium for. More and more computer devices will be used as miniature web servers, and more will have their resources pooled for computation. [1] In 2005, Mikhail Gorbachev told Kurzweil that emerging decentralized electronic communication "was a big factor" for fostering democracy in the Soviet Union. Prototype personal flying vehicles using microflaps exist. Posted by EditorDavid on Sunday June 14, 2020 @01:34PM from the future-shocks dept. The vast majority of computation is done by computers and not by human brains. Kurzweil predicted something like Google on a WiFi network coming before 2010. These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver "augmented reality" and "virtual reality" in three different ways. Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge. The same nanotechnology should also allow people to alter the neural connections within their brains, changing the underlying basis for the person's intelligence, memories and personality. Click to View Full Infographic. PCs are capable of answering queries by accessing information wirelessly via the Internet. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights. He predicts that artificial intelligence would outsmart the human brain in computational capabilities by mid-21st century. Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The manufacturing, agricultural and transportation sectors of the economy are almost entirely automated and employ very few humans. Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet.
(2:16:30), Religious fundamentalists are unlikely to reverse technological and social progress. (In "How My Predictions Are Faring" written in 2010, and "Ray Kurzweil Defends His 2009 Predictions" written in 2012. Futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted that the singularity will occur in 2045. Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. Amazing TOP 5 – https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVQDbWiMnrPhHTlOOfzY1q4b7d60u19Wx, Hashtags: #Top10 #List10 #Chartytops #futuretechnologies #KURZWEIL The same technology will let bioterrorists create newer, deadly pathogens. Using brain nanobots, recorded or real-time brain transmissions of a person's daily life known as "experience beamers" will be available for other people to remotely experience. Ray Kurzweil, Google’s Director of Engineering, is a well-known futurist with a high-hitting track record for accurate predictions. Predicts that he and his company will create a "voice-activated typewriter" by 1995. While a growing number of humans believe that their computers and the simulated personalities they interact with are intelligent to the point of human-level consciousness, experts dismiss the possibility that any could pass the Turing Test. It forecast the demise of the already crumbling Soviet Union due to new technologies such as cellular phones and fax machines disempowering authoritarian governments by removing state control over the flow of information. In either 2029 according to Ray Kurzweil or 2030 according David Gobel is the predicted date of the Methuselarity, the point on the longevity escape velocity we may be able to live indefinitely due to extending life spans by more than one year per year. The most likely year for the debut of advanced nanotechnology. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes. It is unknown what events will happen in a post cosmic computer mind era, but whatever it is, it will truly be incomprehensible in every sense of the word to feeble human minds. In 1999, Ray Kurzweil made predictions about what the world would be like 20 years in the future. Chess software – Deep Fritz 10 – Multiprocessor Version, Chessmaster 9000 Defeats Reigning US Chess Champion Larry Christiansen; Chessmaster Wins Four Game Match 2.5 to 1.5 Via Live Internet Broadcast on ChessClub.com, Kramnik vs Deep Fritz: Computer wins match by 4:2 | Chess News, Ray Kurzweil Responds to the Issue of Accuracy of His Predictions, 5 amazing predictions by futurist Ray Kurzweil that came true — and 4 that haven't, Ray Kurzweil's Predictions For 2009 Were Mostly Inaccurate, "Ray Kurzweil Defends His 2009 Predictions", "Virtual reality via nanobot injection? The human brain has been completely reverse engineered and all aspects of its functioning are understood. ("U.S. real gross domestic product (real GDP shown in constant 2005 dollars) grew every year except for a small decline in 2009. People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. Intelligent roads and driverless cars are in use, mostly on highways. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Kurzweil himself has defended the accuracy of his predictions, though I’m unsure if he agrees with the content of the Wikipedia page in question. Ray Kurzweil recently announced his year-by-year predictions of the future. The classroom is dominated by computers. People often play music alongside digital musicians. The threat posed by genetically engineered. In consequence, clear distinctions between humans and machines no longer exist. Brain nanobots could also elicit emotional responses from users. Kurzweil said the following in a November 2007 Computerworld interview: In the cover article of the December 2010 issue of IEEE Spectrum, John Rennie criticized Kurzweil's predictions: "On close examination, his clearest and most successful predictions often lack originality or profundity. Toutes les prédictions de Ray Kurzweil ne sont pas aussi drastiques, et certaines semblent encore plus susceptibles de se réaliser. (1:07:50), In 15 years, we will be able to reprogram our biology just as we program computers today. The VR glasses will also have built-in computers featuring "virtual assistant" programs that can help the user with various daily tasks. By now, it is likely that "clean a house" will be within the capabilities of a household robot. The many variations of "Human Body 2.0" (as Kurzweil calls it) are incrementally accumulated into this and the following decade, with each organ and body system having its own course of refinement and development. Another is represented in the writings of the sociologist William Sims Bainbridge, who describes a promise of “cyberimmortality,” when we will… Speech-to-speech translation features will be available in cell phones in either 2009 or 2010. (2:31:00), In 20 years, "flying devices will be personalized using nanotechnology and they'll fly themselves." [16] In 2006 reigning World Champion Vladimir Kramnik was defeated 4:2 by Deep Fritz, running on a multiprocessor personal computer. Digital products such as books, songs, games, movies and software are typically acquired as files via a wireless network and have no physical object associated with them. The rise of Artificial Intelligence creates a real ". Femtoengineering (engineering on the scale of one thousandth of a trillionth of a meter) might be possible. One useful function would be real-time language translation in which words spoken in a foreign language would be translated into text that would appear as subtitles to a user wearing the glasses. (16:50), In 25 years, there will be advanced nanobots that can go inside human bodies and keep them healthy. Nonbiological intelligence will be billions of times more capable than biological intelligence. While a nanobot's subcomponents would be under 100 nm long, the overall size of a nanobot could be measured in micrometers (µm). Most roads now have automated driving systems—networks of monitoring and communication devices that allow computer-controlled automobiles to safely navigate. Required fields are marked *. (2:53:00), Advanced future technologies will not end human conflict, but the 21st century will probably be less warlike than the 20th century. [4], Perhaps most significantly, Kurzweil foresaw the explosive growth in worldwide Internet use that began in the 1990s. In TASM, he expected the following developments would occur by 2009: These three predictions (among others) did come to fruition. At list that s what Ray Kurzweil thinks. Some of the algorithms that code for development of these regions have been deciphered and incorporated into neural net computers. Food is commonly "assembled" by nanomachines. Computer implants designed for direct connection to the brain are also available.
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